How This Strange Campaign Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Formula.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.
On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.
But the current field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving together. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.
Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.
The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.
The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.
During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal year!
Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record
Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.
Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.
The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.
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