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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."